Madelyn Hoffman: Is this ceasefire agreement for real? And will it be enough to address Palestinian concerns?

The news about a possible ceasefire agreement between Israel and the people of Gaza has been met with very mixed reactions. After 465 days of a brutal genocide in Gaza, of course those calling for a ceasefire deal since shortly after the genocide began, are celebrating the announcement. But after a close examination of the details of the deal, many doubt whether this is an actual ceasefire, leading to a permanent ceasefire, an end to the occupation and other solutions to the 76 year occupation of Palestine by the Israelis. Or is this yet another cruel trick being played upon the millions of Palestinians who have been trying to survive and hoping against hope for a ceasefire?

It seems the answer depends on who one is — and the level of wishful thinking one has. It is very hard to sit at a computer and write this thousands of miles away from Gaza. It is very difficult to write this watching video after video of people in Gaza celebrating the announcement. It’s very difficult to write this knowing the history of the last 76 years of the Nakba and ethnic cleansing and then, much more recently, the past 15 months an ongoing genocide and apart from a few weeks early on, the almost total refusal of Netanyahu to agree to any ceasefire deal.

What makes matters worse is how desperately Palestinians want, need and deserve a genuine ceasefire, followed by an end to the occupation. These remedies also deserve to be extended to the Palestinians living on the West Bank. In both cases, international organizations like the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC) have ruled that there is a plausible case that Israel is committing genocide and that “all the Israeli settlements on the West Bank are illegal” and must end.

Add to that the recent Amnesty International report on what they state is a genocide of the Palestinian people, the Center for Constitutional Rights, the UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese and 14 countries, including Belgium, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Egypt, Ireland, Spain, Maldives, Mexico, Nicaragua and Turkiye. And, of course, the Houthis in Yemen have been doing what they can to block ships headed to Israel, for as long as the genocide continues. Several other international organizations have also stated loudly and with conviction that what the Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF) are doing needs to stop and that the rest of the world needs to do whatever it can to stop the IOF from continuing its genocide of the Gazan people.

The ICC has also issued arrest warrants for war ciminals Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant. The rest of the world is urged to arrest these war ciminals should they set foot in their country. Unfortunately, the U.S. has ignored these international decrees. One of the U.S. Senators from New Jersey, Cory Booker, even welcomed Yoav Gallant into his office in Washington, D.C.

To top it off, the U.S.’s own Antony Blinken has been caught contradicting a report from human rights organizations that Israel has been blocking the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. Had he told the truth about this, the U.S. Congress would have been obliged to cut off military aid to Israel. Blinken should be held responsible for his complicity in genocide.

So, please forgive this writer if she is very cynical about the ceasefire deal, despite how much the people of Gaza need and deserve an end to the trauma and suffering of the last 15 months. Here are some of what’s missing and some of what’s included which is cause for concern about whether or not this ceasefire deal will bring about what is needed to both end the genocide and take the key next steps toward peace, equality and justice for the Palestinians.

1. The deal is supposed to be implemented in 3 stages, beginning with a prisoner/hostage swap. Rumor has it that Netanyahu and company will honor phase 1 — they will release 1000 prisoners they’ve taken post October 7th, 2023 in exchange for release of 33 hostages. These 1000 new prisoners were taken, according to reports, solely to give Israel some leverage in these negotiations. But will Israel release prisoners held on administrative detention? High visibility prisoners like Dr. Hossam Abu Safiya will likely not be released. In addition, if Israel decides to ignore Phase 2 and Phase 3, who will stop them? Certainly not the U.S. government and Donald Trump.
2. There is no ceasefire deal for the West Bank and speculation that perhaps to get Netanyahu’s buy-in, Trump has guaranteed that the U.S. won’t intervene in the event that Israel continues to work toward annexation of the West Bank.
3. If past experience has taught the world anything, Israel is likely to ignore the ceasefire deal — and who will stop them? The U.S. and Biden? The U.S. and Trump? Probably not. Israel violated the ceasefire deal with Lebanon (which was really more about giving the U.S. more of a role in acting as traffic cop for Israel than a ceasefire) reportedly more than 400 times, perhaps as many as 800 times.
4. The ceasefire agreement is supposed to begin on January 19th, the day before Trump’s inauguration. So on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, Israel will likely bomb to its heart’s content, trying to do as much damage as possible prior to the beginning of the 42-day “pause.” In addition, all the attention already focused on this deal is designed to make Trump look good, and should something happen in the next few days, after all the hype about the deal, unfortunately, it’s Hamas that will be made out to be the villain, not Israel or the U.S., something that Trump and the U.S. may actually want.
5. Should Israel want to continue its genocide for whatever reason, it’s going to be difficult to stop them, just as it has been difficult to stop them for the past 465 days.

So, all in all, it’s way past time for there to be a genuine ceasefire, an end to the illegal occupation and an end to the illegal Israeli settlements on the West Bank. It is way past time for Gazans to be able to return to their homes or rebuild them since so many homes have been destroyed. It is way past time for Gazan parents, children and extended families, to sleep peacefully at night and begin to heal. Most of the world wants it. Of course, all Gazans want it.

But what will happen remains to be seen. And, unfortunately, there is a lot of legitimacy to those who do not trust the Israelis, or the U.S., or Netanyahu or Trump, to have the best interests of the Palestinians at heart.